The Coalition will release its final policy costings ahead of Saturday’s federal election, arguing they show a $1 billion improvement to the forecast budget bottom line over the forward estimates.

Follow all of Tuesday’s updates as they happen in our live blog.

Live updates

By Jessica Riga

Cuts to public sector spending underpin Coalition’s forecast budget improvement

(ABC News: Ian Cutmore)

The Coalition has said it would improve the budget bottom line over the next four years by roughly a billion dollars, by driving down spending on the public service.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says an increased “efficiency divided” placed on public service agencies would raise more than $2 billion.

An efficiency dividend is a mechanism, introduced by the Hawke Labor government in 1987, that cuts public sector budgets by a certain percentage each year.

Currently the efficiency dividend is 1.5 per cent, but if the Coalition were re-elected it would increase that to 2 per cent for the next three years.

Mr Frydenberg says the efficiency dividend will cover the cost of every policy the Coalition has announced during the campaign, and leave the budget better off.

“What we are doing is offsetting that spending with an increase in the efficiency dividend by half a per cent, which will raise more than $2.3 billion,” he said 

“The annual departmental bill across the Commonwealth is about $327 billion. What we’re saying is it will be reduced to about $324 billion, as a result of this additional measure.”

By Jessica Riga

Will the Coalition release the modelling showing the impact the housing policy will have on property prices?

Josh Frydenberg avoids answering the question directly and says the Coalition has used “Treasury analysis and the experience of our other programs”.

“Now, our policy has been informed by Treasury analysis and the experience that we’ve with everything from the first home super savers’ scheme, to people accessing super during the pandemic, to our other policies that have helped people into the housing market,” he says. 

“And across the year, in Australia, there are $700 billion worth of private residential property transactions. It’s a $10 trillion market. And every year, there are is $700 billion worth of private residential property transactions. If the 100,000 first home-buyers were able to access the maximum $50,000, that’s a $5 billion addition from super into the housing market. And that is why the Property Council have said that this is fairly targeted and that they’re not expecting to see an inflationary impact on prices that is material.

“That is the key point. We have used Treasury analysis and the experience of our other programs to inform our decision-making with respect to this policy. It’s a vitally important policy.”

By Jessica Riga

In terms of the efficiency dividends, how much more fat do agencies have to trim?

“What we’re saying is we’re lifting it from 1.5 to 2%,” Josh Frydenberg says. “When Labor was last in office, the efficiency dividend was 4%.”

“These in no way impact the delivery of services and support to Australians,” Simon Birmingham says. 

“Essential services remain guaranteed under the Coalition. We have lifted Medicare bulk billing rates. We’ve fully funded the NDIS and we’ve grown investment in areas of mental health in aged care and schools, etc. This is about public sector administration, administration by government departments.”

By Jessica Riga

Is it too early to say the Coalition’s policies have been fully costed?

We’re onto questions now. 

One reporter has asked if it’s too early to be using sweeping statements saying the Coalition’s policies have been costed, considering they submitted two more to be costed this morning. 

“Not at all,” Simon Birmingham says.

“This represents the reconciliation for Liberal and National parties’s policies through this election campaign.”

Josh Frydenberg weighs on this question as well.

“Ask yourself the single question, and hopefully 26 million are asking the simple question, why has Labor not put forward these policies for costings? Why? There’s no reason other than they do not want to be subject to scrutiny,” he says.

By Jessica Riga

Coalition attacks Labor’s costings 

“What we have done is put 35 policies forward for costing and Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have put a big fat zero,” Josh Frydenberg says.

“And thousands, hundreds of thousands of Australians are voting right now. And they’re not able to see the cost of Labor’s policies. What is Anthony Albanese hiding from? The answer is proper scrutiny.”

By Jessica Riga

Key Event

Coalition reveals it has submitted 35 policies for costings

“Throughout this election campaign, we have submitted to date 35 policies for independent verification, costing, to be published transparently, independently, about the departments of treasury and finance,” Finance Minister Simon Birmingham says. 

“Indeed, a further two will be lodged this morning, providing 37 fully transparently independently costed coalition policies versus zero lodged by the Labor Party and Mr Albanese.”

“Today we can demonstrate we have fully paid for all of our election promises and improved that budget bottom line further to the tune of another $1 billion, providing a $104 billion improvement to the budget bottom line.”

(ABC News)

By Jessica Riga

Key Event

Coalition costings announced

“Today we’re announcing that we’re offsetting that $2.3 billion worth of new spending commitments with an increase of 0.5% point in the efficiency dividend,” Treasurer Josh Frydenberg says.

“At 2%, this efficiency dividend is half what it was in Labor’s last year in government, at 4%. And what it will see is productivity gains delivered to the budget bottom line.

“It’s a responsible approach. It’s one that is being used by previous governments of both political persuasions. And it ensures our budget bottom line actually improves over time.”

(ABC News)

By Jessica Riga

Key Event

Josh Frydenberg and Simon Birmingham reveal Coalition’s policy costings

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg and Finance Minister Simon Birmingham are holding a press conference on the Coalition’s policy costings.

You can tune into the press conference using the live stream at the top of the blog.

But of course, we’ll have the key updates posted here. 

By Jessica Riga

What are the two major parties promising for first home buyers?

(ABC News: Liz Pickering)

Cracking into the property market has never been easy for most, but recently it seems harder than ever.

Home ownership rates among younger Australians — people under 40 — have been steadily declining for decades.

Housing affordability, and particularly how to help people buy their own home, has emerged as one of the key policy contests of the federal election.

Labor wants to use the government’s cash to help first home buyers into the market, while the Coalition thinks unlocking superannuation could be the key.

So what precisely are the two major parties offering?

By Jessica Riga

We’ll be hearing from Scott Morrison in about 30 minutes

As always, the key updates will be here in the blog. 

By Jessica Riga

Government documents used for climate change preparation kept secret after AAT hearing

(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Conflict within the Coalition on climate policy has made it harder for public servants to give frank advice about preparing for worsening weather extremes like floods and fires, according to the sworn testimony of a senior bureaucrat.

The comments came in July last year during the Coalition’s legal attempt to maintain secrecy over climate scenarios “war-gamed” by some of the top bureaucrats in the country.

Under “Project Climate Ready”, the scenarios were mapped out in 2018 in anticipation of the kinds of major disruptions expected from climate change, by a now-defunct group called the Secretaries Group on Climate Risk.

In 2019, the ABC obtained some documents relating to the group’s activities, but details of the scenarios were not released.

The ABC fought the decision to withhold the documents at the Administrative Appeals Tribunal (AAT) but was unsuccessful.

The ABC is not going to appeal the decision in the Federal Court, so is now publishing the revelations from last year’s hearings.

By Jessica Riga

Have the teal independents taken the wind out of the Greens’ sails?

“I don’t think it has,” Greens leader Adam Bandt told News Breakfast.

“Everyone is taking polls rightly with a grain of salt at the moment. We’ve seen published polls in reputable media agencies that have the Greens between 15 and 18% here in Queensland.

“There’s people who are looking at independents will still have to vote for someone in the Senate. Anything that gets climate and the terrible climate policies of Liberal and Labor on the agenda, we support. And we’ll be preferencing those progressive independents in a number of the seats they’re running, with preferencing Labor ahead of Liberal across the country because we want to see a change of government.

“The more entrants in the democratic race that want to have a race to the top on climate is something we welcome.”

By Jessica Riga

What’s the one thing the Greens won’t negotiate on?

(ABC News)

Greens leader Adam Bandt says climate change is at the top of the list. 

“You have Liberal and sadly Labor both backing 114 new coal and gas mines across the country. We’ll blow any climate targets if we open those,” Bandt told News Breakfast this morning.

“So we’ll go into the discussion saying we’ve got to stop opening new coal and gas mines. We can have a discussion in the next Parliament about what targets we should have, how quickly we should get out of coal and gas while supporting workers, but everyone should be able to agree, you can’t put the fire out while you’re pouring petrol on it. We’ll be saying to Labor, clearly stop your plans to open up coal and gas mines.

“On cost of living, the priorities for us would be getting dental and mental health into Medicare. Building affordable homes and making child care free. We have put on the table revenue measures that involve making the big corporations and billionaires pay their fair share and stop getting handouts. We’re not asking everyday people to pay any more tax to pay this.”

By Jessica Riga

Why using your superannuation savings for buying a house ‘is not recommended’

(ABC News: Daniel Irvine)

Many leading economists say allowing first home buyers to draw their superannuation will eventually push house prices higher. But are Australians better off leaving their money in their super fund or using it for a home deposit?

No one can predict if in a decade from now house prices will have risen faster than superannuation savings. 

Economists also argue policymakers need to consider the implications of measures that drain people’s savings for retirement (and in turn could lead to more people in future relying on the age pension) and that fuel demand for housing.

By Jessica Riga

By Jessica Riga

Morrison ‘not contemplating’ quitting if he loses election, claims he can defy polls again

(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison claims he can defy national opinion polls and win Saturday’s federal election, saying Australians want him to be a “more inclusive” Prime Minister if he gets another term in power.

Despite the upbeat message, some of his Liberal colleagues are increasingly worried the national polls are suggesting a Labor landslide is the most likely outcome this weekend.

The opposition believes it is competitive or in front in a swathe of seats. It needs to win just seven to claim a majority, while the government cannot afford to lose any.

But in a wide-ranging interview with 7.30 about his prospects and time in office, the Prime Minister declared he was not thinking about standing down after Saturday’s poll, even in the event of a defeat or a hung parliament.

“No, that is not something I’m contemplating because I’m not contemplating that being the scenario,” Mr Morrison said.

Josh Frydenberg, or possibly Peter Dutton, are considered the most likely to be the next Liberal leaders should the Coalition lose, though that would be dependent on both men retaining their seats and the final numbers in the party room.

By Jessica Riga

Coalition to release final policy costings, Labor to follow on Thursday

The Coalition will today release its final policy costings ahead of Saturday’s federal election, arguing they show a $1 billion improvement to the forecast budget bottom line over the forward estimates.

The savings will be achieved through an efficiency dividend that caps public sector spending.

The government’s continuing to attack Labor for not yet releasing its full and detailed policy costings, including its budget forecasts.

Labor says it’ll release the costings for its policies on Thursday.

By Jessica Riga

Good morning!

Welcome to yet another day on the federal election campaign trail. 

I’m Jessica Riga and I’ll be keeping you in the loop as the day’s events unfold. 

We’ve got a lot to get through so let’s get going!