Bushfires are more likely this spring, all the way from western Victoria to Townsville, according to the annual Seasonal Bushfire Outlook, Spring 2021.
Key points:
- Eastern Australia faces an increased potential for grassfires this spring
- The eastern two-thirds of Australia can expect a wetter-than-average spring
- Some regions of the south-east can expect a lower-than-normal potential for bushfires this spring
The multi-agency report says that, while a wet winter has meant lush green grass for inland areas, as temperatures rise into spring, fires could become an increased risk as grass dries out and cures.
Australasian Fire and Emergency Council (AFEC) is the national council for fire and emergency services. Its director, Rob Webb, explained the risks.
“We might think rain just puts bushfires out. But it also promotes fuel growth,” Mr Webb said.
“With recent rainfall over eastern Australia, there’s been a lot of grass and crop growth, particularly in northern New South Wales and in southeast Queensland.”
Supplied: AFAC
)Wetter spring ahead
The Bureau of Meteorology said a wetter-than-average spring was likely for most of the eastern two-thirds of Australia, except western Tasmania.
Below-average rainfall was more likely for the western sections of Western Australia.
Supplied: AFAC
)Winter temperatures factor in
While statistics are yet to be finalised, average maximum temperatures for winter were likely to be above average for the northern tropics, Tasmania and coastal areas of Victoria.
Average minimum temperatures for the same period were very likely to be above the long-term average across most of Australia, except for the southern parts of Western Australia.
Supplied: AFAC
)This comes after recent rainfall resulted in average to above-average soil moisture and stream flows across many areas.
All these factors combine to promote strong grass growth in the east.
There were a few notable exceptions, with central coastal Queensland and an area of south-east South Australia extending into western Victoria and south-west New South Wales all experiencing below-average rainfall for the year.
Supplied: AFAC
)Fires already in Queensland
Queensland’s fire season has already begun in some areas, according to Rural Fire Service in Queensland’s chief superintendent, Tony Johnstone.
“We’ve got fires happening right now in Bundaberg. We’ve had fires in the north Burnett and the Burnett area [and] around the Brisbane Valley, because they’ve had excessively dry periods,” Superintendent Johnstone said
“After short showers of rain, the grass, the weeds have cured out and fires have travelled pretty quickly,” he added.
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Grass growth is not just limited to New South Wales and Queensland.
Emergency Management Victoria Commissioner Andrew Crisp said the north and the west of his state also faced a grassfiire threat after median-to-above-median rainfall this winter.
“It will lead to good crop growth for farmers, but also significant grass growth. And grassfires can be as deadly as forest fires,” Commissioner Crisp said.
“Victoria is one of the highest-risk places in the world in relation to fire. It will be hot over summer. It will be dry and, in a lot of parts of the state, there will be fires.”
NSW Rural Fire Service’s deputy commissioner, Peter McKechnie, said it was not only grass that posed a fire risk inland, crops could also burn, too, said .
“As crops become ready to harvest, they cure. And we also then have hot machinery operating [among] those crops and lots of dust,” Deputy Commissioner McKechnie said.
“And, if machinery isn’t well maintained, it can be an ignition factor. And, obviously, where fire does occur, it can be absolutely devastating to farmers and farming communities.”
Facebook: NSW RFS Forest Hill Brigade
)Hazard reduction catch-up
Queensland and New South Wales reported a challenging hazard-reduction season, with a wet autumn delaying controlled burns.
“We just didn’t get the opportunities,” Deputy Commissioner McKechnie said.
“We got some done though autumn and then, obviously, the depths of winter is hard for burning.
“We’ve seen a really great period over the last couple of weeks, before this recent round of weather in New South Wales, and it’s now a catch-up as we go into the season and we’ll continue to take every opportunity.”
Supplied: NSW Rural Fire Service
)Commissioner Crisp reported a good season for hazard reduction in Victoria, after a fairly benign fire season last year.
“There’s every chance that more planned burning will happen in spring,” Commissioner Crisp said.
“So, it has been really positive what has been done and what possibly can be done over the next few months.”
Black Summer scars
The seasonal outlook also shows the large areas of Victoria and New South Wales — which burned during the 2019–20 Black Summer bushfires — have a lower potential for igniting because forests there are continuing to recover.
Supplied: AFAC
)“We lost 1.5 million hectares and that was predominantly the east of our state, from the Murray right down to the coast,” Commander Crisp said.
“That area, as you’d imagine, has below-normal fire potential, given that forests are only starting to re-vegetate now.
“But that area does also have a lot of the forests where we’ve actually seen above-median rainfall, so the forests are wetter as well,” he said.
Recovery goes on
As millions of hectares of forest recover from the 2019–20 fires, fire chiefs are also mindful of the ongoing recovery of firefighters and their communities.
“The effects of that devastating season are still very real for our communities and our firefighters,” Commissioner McKechnie said.
AAP: Dan Himbrechts
)“There’s a lot of energy and a lot of effort gone into working with our people, from a mental health perspective, and also to ensure that we were prepared going back into a fire season last year and then, obviously, another one this year.
“So, do I feel that we’re well-positioned for this fire season? Yes, I do. But do we still have ongoing work with our members and for that matter, our communities? Absolutely.”
