As Australians round out yet another school holidays marred by lockdowns, border restrictions and ill-fated travel plans, things are looking markedly different across the pond.
Parts of the European Union have begun to open quarantine-free travel to those fully immunised against COVID-19, while Israel has already retired its “green pass” system — which allowed vaccinated residents to visit theatres, restaurants and bars — thanks to high vaccination rates and low case numbers.
National Cabinet has agreed to a four-stage plan that would see Australia treat coronavirus more “like the flu”, turning to lockdowns only as a last resort.
But it hinges on Australians getting the jab — and it has some wondering: how much longer could restrictions apply to those already fully vaccinated?
What are other countries doing?
Australia’s handling of the pandemic has been “head and shoulders above” other nations, says Adrian Esterman, a professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of South Australia.
With more than 63 per cent of the adult EU population having received at least one dose, the European Commission recently unveiled its digital vaccine certificate or “passport”, giving the green light to international travellers who have received the jab.
In addition to scrapping self-isolation requirements, those who have returned a negative test 48 to 72 hours prior to travel “should be exempted from possible quarantine requirements, except when they come from areas heavily affected by the virus”, the Commission said.
“Most European countries now let American citizens in who are fully vaccinated without going into quarantine,” says Professor Esterman.
“We’re a long way off that.”
In addition to open borders, those who are fully immunised have also been able to avoid strict curfews and restrictions on gatherings imposed as part of the pandemic.
In Germany, for example, recovered or vaccinated people aren’t “officially counted as part of a social gathering, even in high-incidence areas”, while in the United States, those that are fully immunised can, at least for the most part, go about their day without wearing a mask or social distancing.
“Particularly in the United States, all manner of incentives to have a vaccination are being offered from, as I understand it, free fries through to vouchers and payments,” says Rosemary Calder, a professor in health policy at Victoria University’s Mitchell Institute.
“We need to think about what’s appropriate in the Australian context that would encourage people to participate in a vaccination program”.
So how many people need to be vaccinated before we start offering more freedoms?
Unfortunately, it’s not quite that simple.
Australians who have received the jab already have a similar certificate to the EU’s COVID “passport” on their smartphone, and Tourism Minister Dan Tehan has expressed interest in giving vaccine passport holders the ability to travel across state borders when there are lockdowns.
But in addition to setbacks in the national rollout, health experts have cautioned there is no “magic number” needed to reach herd immunity, which can be “very complex and take a few years” to develop.
“My thoughts are that it shouldn’t be based on what percentage of people are vaccinated. It should be, is everybody able to be vaccinated?” says Professor Esterman.
“In other words, if vaccines are free to everybody who wants it, that’s the time we can [consider it].
“Because if you don’t want to be vaccinated, then you’re actually saying I don’t want those privileges.”
So what about people who want to get vaccinated, but can’t yet?
In a legal sense, there’s not a lot stopping governments from offering perks to those who have received the jab, says Maria O’Sullivan, an associate professor in law and deputy director of the Castan Centre for Human Rights Law at Monash University.
While younger people who are not eligible to receive the vaccine yet could argue they have been “indirectly discriminated against” because of their age, she adds, easing restrictions for some is more a question of social equity.
But she notes the law “doesn’t operate in a vacuum — it operates within society”.
“So for example, last year when they had the lockdown, ordinarily, we would not comply with curfews and so forth, but the social acceptance of the restrictions was amenable to that,” she says.
Overseas, “huge discussions” about the ethics of initiatives like immunity passports are well underway, adds Professor Esterman.
While tourist destinations like Spain and Italy “simply want more people in”, other nations like Germany have adopted a more tempered approach.
“If you gave privileges now, younger people will be disenfranchised, and get really fed up about it,” says Professor Esterman.
“In Australia, we only have a small proportion of our population vaccinated.”
What about people who can’t get the vaccine for medical reasons, or conscientious objectors?
Putting aside the loosely defined targets needed to achieve herd immunity and secure social acceptance of incentives like vaccine passports or certificates, there are also legal considerations that must be made for those who are unable to receive the vaccine due to medical conditions.
Excluding this small group of people from entering businesses because they’re not immunised, for example, could be in breach of anti-discrimination laws, Professor O’Sullivan says, and the government would therefore need to find a way to reflect valid exemptions in any COVID certificate.
There’s also the issue of conscientious objectors — although Professor O’Sullivan notes any exemptions would be bound by a narrow criteria, and are unlikely to include those who simply don’t want the vaccine.
“And that might be the case, and that’s all well and good, but it has a very defined classification in law.
“So your typical conscientious objection would be someone who, during the Vietnam War, for example, was opposed to violence because they’re a pacifist. But you can’t really say legally someone’s a conscious objector just because they don’t want to go to war.”
In the public health environment, she adds, “there’s a lot more leeway for governments and businesses to require things like conditions of entry”, she adds.
“That is because they would say, ‘We’ve got a duty of care to our staff and our customers’.”
Could new variants throw a spanner in the works?
Unfortunately, yes — and we’re already seeing it overseas.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned governments around the world against easing COVID-19 restrictions too soon, while authorities in Israel have warned they may need to bring back some restrictions, especially those connected with their recently-retired “green pass” system, amid an increase of cases linked to the Delta variant.
“That’s what variants are, they’re about adaptation to the environment,” says Professor Calder.
“We know from evidence and experience that viruses are busy replicating themselves to stay alive.”
While Australians can have “some confidence” we are developing the capacity to live with the variances, Professor Calder says, we will need to adapt vaccines to match variants, “as we do with the flu”.
“We’ve done that with flu for a long time now. And we will need to do it with COVID because it’s taking the same pathway,” she says.
“So yes, we will need to maintain … strong investment in both getting people vaccinated, making sure we keep the vaccination development cycle well resourced, and on track, to produce vaccines that are appropriate to any new variants.”
What about the Australians overseas who are already fully vaccinated?
More than 35,000 Australians are still stranded overseas, many of whom currently reside in countries where they have already received the jab, or are eligible to receive it.
The federal government has announced it will conduct a trial of a shorter seven-day quarantine period with a small number of vaccinated travellers, who will be in monitored home quarantine.
Similar systems are already in place in the United States, although it only applies to those who have not received the jab.
“The trial will actually enable us to see whether [home quarantine for fully vaccinated Australians] works or not,” says Professor Esterman.
“I think that is quite a sensible idea.”
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