It’s going to be scorching in the west, stormy in the east and there is even a potential cyclone brewing up north

You may want to be mentally switching off for the year, but there’s plenty of weather worth keeping tabs on this Christmas.

“The message is just to keep in touch with emergency services and any forecasts and warnings while also enjoying the break as well,” according to Jonathan How, senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

So here is the lowdown on what to keep an eye on over the festive break.  

A scorcher in the west 

A large section of Western Australia, including Perth, can expect a severe heatwave and pockets of extreme heatwave conditions. 

A heatwave is defined as three or more consecutive days of maximum and minimum temperatures well above average, and the forecast is certainly fitting the bill. 

Perth is expecting a run of three days above 40 degrees Celsius, with Christmas Day and Boxing Day looking to be the hottest of hot that run of days.

The city could even crack its hottest Christmas Day on record, which stands at 42C recorded in 1968.

“This time it could go even higher than that,” Mr How said.

“Particularly out towards the eastern suburbs, we could see the maximum temperatures climb up to 44C and into the 45C territory as well.” 

While last Christmas was also hot in Perth, the heat will be compounded this year by high overnight temperatures; it’s expected to dip down to just 27C on Saturday night. 

The extreme heat is the result of warm air funnelled down from the north. 

It’s being further compounded because a west-coast trough is stubbornly remaining offshore and preventing any kind of sea breeze to cool things down. 

The heat also brings with it a heightened fire risk. 

“With the winds picking up and heat, we’re going to see severe to extreme fire dangers across that part of western and south-west WA,” Mr How said. 

The region has already seen major fires this year.

“The messaging is just take care and follow all advice from DFES over the Christmas break,” Mr How said.

Cyclone brewing up north

Meanwhile, it’s finally looking like the monsoon is moving down over Australia. 

“As it does, we are expecting a tropical load to develop in the Timor or Arafura Sea in the next two to three days,” Mr How said. 

“Because the water is just so warm to the north of the Top End, it’s looking like the conditions will favour further development of any system there.” 

So it will come down to how long the low hangs around over the water. 

“Some of the computer models do have the tropical low remaining over the really warm waters for longer, which gives it a better chance of developing into a cyclone and from there possibly even a strong, severe cyclone,” Mr How said. 

But others have it moving over land before it gets the chance to grow into a full-blown cyclone. 

Regardless of whether this one eventuates, Mr How said people should be watching for cyclones and thinking about their preparations. 

“But particularly this week, we are seeing the first monsoon burst across the Top End so it could catch people by surprise.”

So if you haven’t got into monsoon and cyclone mode yet, this would be the time.

“What we do know is that we’re expecting some good rain across the Top End in the near term.”  

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Storms in the east 

Away from the monsoonal rain, storms are also expected in the east. 

Storms are expected in central, southern and south-east Queensland, into northern New South Wales and extending down the Great Dividing Range. 

Of the capital cities, Brisbane and Canberra could be in for a storm.

Mr How advised people to keep an eye on the radar. 

“If you’re having an outdoor gathering, just keep an eye on that.”

Sydney could also have a few showers, more likely in the west. 

Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide are expecting fairly average maximum temperatures for Christmas Day, possibly a bit cloudy but with little chance of heavy or prolonged rain. 

Good news for cricket fans 

Conditions are currently looking pretty perfect for the Boxing Day Test, with Melbourne forecast to be partly cloudy with a mild maximum of 20C. 

The temperature is expected to slowly build through the Test but only reach 27C on Thursday with little chance of rain throughout. 

Merry Christmas and may you make it through lunch without having to dash in from the rain.